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Michael Fowlkes' Analyst Insights


InvestorsObserver
Options and ETF Analyst Writer
Michael Fowlkes
Author Bio

 

Netflix to report earnings July 16

Michael Fowlkes

7/14/2018 11:53 AM

What's Happening

Video streaming leader Netflix (NFLX) will report its second quarter earnings after the market close July 16. Analysts forecast earnings of $0.80 per share, up from $0.15 during the same period last year. NFLX has been a top performer in 2018, with shares rising 99.3% on the year.

Technical Analysis

NFLX was recently trading at $400.72, down $22.49 from its 12-month high and $243.74 above its 12-month low. Overall technical indicators for NFLX are bullish with a strong upward trend. The stock has recent support above $380.00, and recent resistance below $420.00. Of the 33 analysts who cover the stock, 16 rate it a “strong buy”, three rate it a “buy”, 13 rate it a “hold”, and one rates it a “strong sell”. NFLX gets a score of 67 from InvestorsObserver’s Stock Score Report.

Analyst's Thoughts

Netflix has more than doubled so far in 2018, and with optimism so high in the stock, another strong quarterly report should send shares even higher. Netflix has done a fantastic job growing its domestic subscribers, and its international growth has far exceeded estimates. The growth has been fueled by Netflix’s strong lineup of original programming, which has really set the streaming platform apart from its competitors. The street expects a small earnings beat, with a whisper number of $0.81 for the quarter, but as always it will be subscriber numbers that really drive the stock after the report. Expectations are high, with analysts expecting to see Netflix add 1.22 million domestic subscribers, and 5.08 million globally. The company has been pouring money into its original programming, with the company expecting to spend as much as $8 billion in 2018 on its original programming lineup. Analysts have an average $372.47 price target on the stock.

Stock Only Trade

If you're looking to establish a long stock position in NFLX, consider buying the stock under $401.00. Sell if it falls below $361.00 or take profits if it gets to $461.00.

Bullish Trade

If you want a bullish hedged trade on the stock, consider an August 320/325 bull-put credit spread for a $0.45 credit. That's a potential 9.9% return (103.1% annualized*) and the stock would have to fall 18.8% to cause a problem.

Bearish Trade

If you want to take a bearish stance on the stock at this time, consider an August 470/475 bear-call credit spread for an $0.50 credit. That's a potential 11.1% return (115.9% annualized*) and the stock would have to rise 17.4% to cause a problem.

Covered Call Trade

If you like the stock but wish to lower your cost basis on a new position, you may want to consider an August $400 covered call. Buy NFLX shares (typically 100 shares, scale as appropriate), while selling the August $400 call for a debit of $374.75 per share. The trade has a target assigned return of 6.7%, and a target annualized return of 72.4% (for comparison purposes only). 

 

 

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